As far as I can tell, Zelensky has not signed Trump’s mineral deal, which seemed to be a prerequisite for resuming military aid and intelligence which Trump paused in the wake of the Feb 28 fracas in the Oval Office. It was very interesting, and encouraging, that the US resumed intelligence sharing and arms supplies to Ukraine when Zelensky agreed to a ceasefire proposal from the Trump administration on March 19. By agreeing, Zelensky obliged Ukraine to observe a ceasefire, but only if and when Russia also agreed. Because the Russians have been making modest but steady battlefield gains and believe they can win, it stood to reason that they would refuse. Sure enough, after about a week of stalling, Putin responded with a “no”. It looked to me like Trump decided to throw Ukraine a lifeline by putting this ceasefire proposal out as a face-saving measure to give the appearance that Zelensky had somehow capitulated to US demands in exchange for unfreezing US aid.
There have been 2 other US initiatives since then that I want to comment on. The first is an apparent moratorium on attacking energy infrastructure. The Russians claimed it applied to “energy infrastructure”, whereas the Trump administration claimed it applied to “energy and infrastructure”. The Russians continue to attack infrastructure like hospitals. So, in effect it’s “energy infrastructure” only, and that’s presuming that both sides uphold the agreement. This agreement appears to favor Russia because attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the winter to freeze out civilians has long been key to Russia’s strategy, and with the winter ending, attacks on energy are yielding diminishing returns in terms of civilian suffering. At the same time, Ukraine has had major successes lately in damaging Russia’s oil industry with drone attacks. It would seem that by enacting a moratorium on attacks on energy infrastructure now, the timing gives Russia the net benefit. If you factor in the role this might have played in keeping the US aid pipeline open, it’s easy to understand why Ukraine agreed.
So, that’s 1 for Ukraine and 1 for Russia. With Trump, it could be a lot worse.
Also of note, today (March 25), Ukraine and Russia agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea, according to the White House. This is the theater in which Ukraine has had its most resounding success. Remember that Russia was using its navy to block Ukraine from exporting grain via the Black Sea. With no navy, just drones and missiles, Ukraine was able to sink several Russian warships and push the Russian navy out of the western Black Sea and resume grain exports. I see this as a symbolic agreement, as Ukraine effectively won in the Black Sea nearly 2 years ago.
Based on the longtime (and 1-sided) bromance between Trump and Putin and Trump’s outlandish and strident falsehoods about Ukraine (Ukraine starting the war, Zelensky being a dictator, Zelensky gambling with World War 3), I still believe Trump intends to abandon Ukraine and that it’s just a matter of timing. It’s not clear to me why he has not cut off aid to Ukraine already. The punditry has speculated that letting Russia have Ukraine would make Trump look weak. I do not buy that at all. How does it look weak when Trump never expressed any desire for Ukraine to prevail? I continue to watch for revelations that might fill in the gaps on Trump’s endgame on Ukraine, if he has one.
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